❓WHAT HAPPENED: A new poll indicates Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) has a strong lead in the Republican U.S. Senate runoff against Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), and is better placed to defeat Democrat nominee James Talarico.
👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Ken Paxton, John Cornyn, and James Talarico.
📍WHEN & WHERE: March 20, 2026, in Texas.
💬KEY QUOTE: “Likely Republican primary voters strongly prefer Paxton over Cornyn.” – Impact Research poll memo
🎯IMPACT: If he prevails over Cornyn in the primary, Paxton’s strong base appeal could drive Republican turnout in a closely contested general election.
A new poll of likely voters in Texas for the 2026 election cycle indicates that state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R-TX) is positioned strongly in the Republican U.S. Senate runoff against incumbent Republican-in-name-only (RINO) Senator John Cornyn (R-TX). The poll also suggests that Paxton is better placed to defeat controversial Democrat nominee James Talarico in the general election.
The survey gives Talarico a 43 percent to 41 percent lead over Cornyn, and a narrower 44 percent to 43 percent lead over Paxton. Notably, Paxton holds a significant advantage among likely Republican primary voters, leading Cornyn by 53 percent to 37 percent in direct preferences. His strong appeal within the GOP base is further demonstrated by his net favorability rating of +33 among Republican primary voters, compared to Cornyn’s net negative 45 percent favorable / 47 percent unfavorable rating. Paxton’s favorability is also superior to Cornyn’s among independents, at net -32 compared to Cornyn’s -42.
This clear preference among core Republican voters positions Paxton to more effectively rally the party’s energized conservative wing, which could prove crucial for high turnout and momentum heading into the general election against Talarico.
Paxton has a strong track record as an America First conservative and supporter of President Donald J. Trump. Meanwhile, Cornyn has a long history of backstabbing the President, from opposing his border wall proposals in 2015 to opposing his primary campaign in 2024.
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